The NCAA basketball selection committee revealed the 68-team field for the annual March Madness Tournament this past Sunday on March 16. Divided into four regions, the bracket for this tournament promises competitive games throughout with talented teams in every seed. The talent is so stacked and unpredictable that there’s a one in 9.2 quintillion chance at picking a perfect bracket. Still, the thrill of filling out an inevitably incorrect bracket makes March Madness one of the greatest tournaments in all of sports. Legendary players, teams and coaches make a name for themselves through this tournament with this year’s edition setting up for more legendary moments. Even with the nearly impossible probability of filling out a perfect bracket, I’m still going to try and make a bracket with accurate picks for this tournament though, so here are my picks going region by region.
Starting with the Play-in games where I have North Carolina and Texas taking the 11 seeds in the south and mid-west regions respectively. For the 16-seed play-in games, Alabama State and Mt. St. Mary’s project to be the last two 16 seeds in getting wins in their games.
To analyze and select my picks I’m going to break this down into the four regions, with the South region where the overall number one seed Auburn Tigers were placed. In this region I have Michigan State advancing to the Final Four surviving Louisville in an elite eight matchup. Yes, this leaves Auburn out of getting close to the Final Four with them exiting in the round of 32. Auburn’s forward Johni Broome was awarded the SEC player of the year with an incredible statline of 18.9 points per game, 10.6 rebounds and 2.3 blocks per game, leading the Tigers to winning the regular season SEC championship. However, they haven’t played their best basketball as of late with losses to Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Alabama and while these teams are great Auburn looks beatable. Enter Louisville, who are red hot this month with their one loss to Duke. I think Louisville can shock people with a win in the round of 32 here.
Other teams I like from this region are Michigan State and UC San Diego. Starting with UCSD who marched through the Big West tournament to secure their spot in this tournament. UC San Diego isn’t an easy matchup for Michigan in the first round. Michigan experienced turnover problems throughout this entire season, and UC San Diego produces turnovers at one of the highest rates in the country. Even though the Tritons play lesser competition in the aforementioned Big West, they’ve been red hot and shoot the ball efficiently from three point range at a 36% clip. The UC San Diego Tritons set up as a Cinderella candidate for this tournament.
Michigan State’s last month of the season saw them win six games against AP ranked opponents, an impressive resume earning them a two seed in this region. Head coach Tom Izzo enters his 27th straight NCAA tournament with one of his strongest squads ever. Headlined by Jaden Akins and Jase Richardson, the Spartans continue to play their best brand of basketball when it matters and I like them for a deep run in this tournament.
Another game to look out for is Texas A&M and Yale with these two physical teams who surprisingly match up with each other well. While the Aggies are heavily favored in this game, this game should be close throughout with both teams rebounding the ball well and scorers on each side. Wade Taylor IV leads A&M with 15.7 points per game in his senior season with the Aggies with SMU transfer Zhuric Phelps contributing 14.1 as the secondary scorer. Yale’s John Poulakidas led the scoring for the Bulldogs averaging 19.2 points this year in the Ivy League. This matchup between these two gritty teams is one to keep an eye on, but I think A&M’s strength of schedule sets them up for pulling off the win in this game.
In the elite eight, I have Michigan State defeating Louisville’s strong run leaving them as my first team in the Final Four.
Moving to the top right corner with the East region where the Duke Blue Devils hold the one seed. I like the route Duke gets to make a final four push with star freshman forward Cooper Flagg leading the way with his 18.9 points per game. Duke looked unstoppable all year with only three losses in the regular season setting them up for a deep run.
One of the most notable first round games in all of the tournament is six seed BYU vs 11 seed VCU. Two teams I liked entering the tournament who unfortunately were selected to face each other in round one. Future lottery pick in the NBA Draft, Egor Demin leads this Cougar team with Richie Saunders adding 16 points per game. Demin distributes the ball efficiently from the point guard position for BYU which played a part in their nine game win streak to close out the season before a brutal loss to Houston in the Big 12 tournament. I see this game more as a fluke but with the stifling defense VCU plays teams with, this type of result isn’t out of the equation for VCU. Whoever wins this game can go far in this tournament, but I really like the way BYU played recently and I have them going deep into March Madness eventually pulling off a win vs Duke.
Perusing through the rest of this region, the Baylor vs Mississippi State matchup is arguably the best eight vs nine seed matchup in the tourney. Lately though, Baylor head coach Scott Drew has the Bears playing good teams well but narrowly losing out. Mississippi State can tell a similar story with close losses to the Texas Longhorns and Arkansas Razorbacks to close out their regular season. This game is a coin toss for me, but ultimately I have the Baylor Bears moving on to the round of 32. Along with this game, Oregon and Liberty should be a battle, but historically Oregon plays their best basketball in the tournament so I have them moving on in a close game.
BYU will bounce back from their blowout loss to Houston and make it far in this tournament. Running through a gauntlet of Alabama, Wisconsin and Duke to make it to the Final Four in San Antonio. If they get beat by VCU I can see VCU beating these same teams for a deep run with them hanging their hats on defense. The East could have some of the most fluctuation than any region in this tournament with hard fought and close games throughout.
Moving down to the bottom left corner with the West who have the Florida Gators as the one seed in the region. The West absorbed the majority of my time with the prediction process, as I can see 13 different teams moving onto the round of 32 when only eight spots are available. The Gators became my favorite to win the National Championship through their impressive wins over five AP ranked opponents in the month of March alone.
Moving to the first round where Drake and Colorado State are the two big upsets for the round. Missouri can go far in this tournament if they get hot with elite three-point shooters Caleb Grill and Tamar Bates, who both shoot 40% from beyond the arc. On the other side, Drake plays at a slower but efficient pace that bodes well for a potential upset. With Missouri losing five of their last seven, The Drake Bulldogs have the door open to complete a stunning upset. Sliding down to the 12 seed with Colorado State facing Memphis in a game where both teams closed out their seasons with 10 and eight game win streaks. Colorado State won the Mountain West championship while Memphis won the AAC tournament championship to cement themselves in the bracket. Memphis’ star player PJ Haggerty can single handedly take over games, evidenced by his 42 point performance in the AAC tournament vs Wichita State. For Colorado State, Nique Clifford is their top scorer putting up 19 points per game. In the end, Colorado State’s defensive prowess is their path to victory over a stellar Memphis team and they can get it done.
The Kansas and Arkansas game is another that draws my attention with two legendary coaches Bill Self and John Calipari on each side. In this matchup I’m going with the Razorbacks, as Calipari’s bunch settled into a groove after an 0-5 start in SEC conference play. Arkansas additionally gets star freshman Boogie Fland back from injury for this game. On the other hand, Kansas regressed significantly this year, compared to expectations with uncharacteristic losses throughout their season in the Big 12. With Arkansas playing their best basketball, something that I keep bringing up because of how that momentum can carry on in the tournament, I like them to take this matchup. Setting up a potential coaching masterclass between John Calipari’s Arkansas team vs Rick Pitino’s St. John’s squad.
Every game on this side of the bracket is intriguing to me, but the last two I’ll talk about are the matchups between Texas Tech and St. John’s in the Sweet 16 and Florida vs Texas Tech in the Elite 8. First with the sweet 16, this game between Tech and St. John’s may be the best in the round, as both teams played great basketball all year long. Tech’s Big 12 player of the year, JT Toppin, leads this team on offense and defense asserting himself as a force in college basketball. This Texas Tech Red Raider team under head coach Grant McCasland played efficient basketball all year and an elite eight berth seems probable for this squad. Rick Pitino and St. John’s won’t make it easy though, with a top five ranked defense in the country. In the end both of these stellar teams would produce an intriguing game. In the elite eight I have Florida taking down Tech, as the Gators possess so much fire power, leading them to a Final Four appearance.
Moving to the bottom right of the bracket, the Midwest region lies with the Houston Cougars grabbing the one seed. This is one of head coach Kelvin Sampson’s best Houston teams with stars and experience throughout the roster. Houston is who I have taking this region and making it to the Final Four, but more on that later.
In the first round the underdogs of McNeese and High Point hold potential for two bracket busting upsets. Last year many people picked McNeese to beat Gonzaga, as did I before the Zags blew them out. This year I’m sticking with them to beat a hot Clemson Tiger team. Clemson is another team I like and McNeese poses a tough challenge for the Tigers, but McNeese’s defense promises at least a close game against Clemson. I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention McNeese’s manager who blew up on the internet for rapping songs with the team as they walked out of the tunnel. While Clemson holds the higher seed and tougher competition in the ACC that could set them up for a deep run, McNeese’s story is what March is all about and I’m going to pick the McNeese Cowboys again this year. I’ve also got the High Point Panthers upsetting the Purdue Boilermakers in a shootout. Unfortunately, all signs (stats) point to Purdue winning this game, but It’s March and wild upsets are bound to happen and this could be one.
In the round of 32 I have Illinois upsetting the Kentucky Wildcats along with McNeese beating High point to advance in the sweet 16. Kasparas Jakucionis leads Illinois to the sweet 16 where I have an SEC powerhouse Tennessee Volunteer team beating them out to face Houston in an elite eight one seed versus two seed game. These two titans of the sport promise a good game, but the experience of guys like LJ Cryer and J’wan Roberts I have Houston pushing past Zakai Zeigler and the Volunteers.
Now onto the Final Four.
For the Final Four I have Florida outpacing Michigan State and Houston shutting down the BYU Cougars to advance to the National Championship. In the National Championship I have the Florida Gators outlasting Houston by a score of 73-68. This Florida team played so well all season and the duo of Walter Clayton Jr. and Alex Condon will light up the tournament putting everyone on notice. The Gator offense is electric with 10 90+ point games this season, and as good as Houston’s defense is, I don’t think they’ll sufficiently shut down the Gators. Leaving the Florida Gators as your 2025 NCAA National Champion.
Odds are most of my picks are wrong, but filling out a bracket brings the renewable thrill to this tournament every year. Good luck with your brackets and once again happy March Madness.
